The Edge That Wasn't
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#4 — IronNet fixed-topology NEAT

2026-04-03 — refuted by RCA 2026-04-12
Verdict: negative · ⛔ lookahead-contaminated
Fixing the network topology (4→4→3, weights/activations only) cured NEAT's one-direction output collapse and posted EUR_GBP +3,421p / CAD_JPY +12,287p with MC sign_p=0 — all later invalidated as lookahead.

Hypothesis — what it tests

Whether fixing the network topology (no topology mutations, no connection disabling) prevents NEAT's degenerate one-direction output collapse while preserving the apparent edge.

Description

Standard NEAT kept producing degenerate genomes with dead outputs — the V3 general genome had BUY stuck at a constant 0.9445 and went 100% LONG live (−791p in 10 days). IronNet fixed the architecture at 4 inputs → 4 hidden → 3 outputs, fully connected with skip connections (40 always-enabled connections), letting NEAT mutate only weights, biases and activations from {tanh, sin, cos, gauss} — dead outputs became impossible. A 3-phase pipeline (sine pretrain 30 gens → zigzag pretrain 50 gens → walk-forward P&L evolution 200 gens with a >=15% minority-direction hard gate) trained pilot pairs EUR_GBP and CAD_JPY. Evaluated at S5 cadence the M5-trained genomes reached EUR_GBP +3,421p and CAD_JPY +12,287p OOS (40%/74% more than at M5 eval), all passing Monte Carlo sign-shuffle at sign_p=0.0000, and were deployed head-to-head on accounts 001 (S5 fine-tuned) and 009 (M5). The topology fix itself was sound engineering, but the inputs came from the compute_asi_mc pipeline, so the RCA verdict applies: the backtest numbers were lookahead artifacts.

Key result

S5-cadence OOS: EUR_GBP +3,421p (+40% vs M5 eval), CAD_JPY +12,287p (+74%); M5: +2,435p / +7,074p; MC sign_p=0.0000 (10K shuffles); architecture 4→4→3, 40 connections, 47 continuous + 7 discrete params

Indicators

ASIMC(D)MC(dD)Kaufman Efficiency Ratiozigzag (labels)unrealized P&L (UPnL)

Algorithms

NEAT neuroevolution (fixed topology, weights/activations only)supervised zigzag-label pretrainingsine-wave positive-control pretrainingwalk-forward-in-fitness evaluationMonte Carlo sign-shuffle validation

Code

Interactive version (search, filters, figures): the experiment explorer.

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